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K. Jacquet vs V. Gaubas — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/64-finals · June 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing V. Gaubas (moneyline) in K. Jacquet vs V. Gaubas (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).

Surface grass Odds K. Jacquet 1.40 · V. Gaubas 3.00

Bot bet

V. Gaubas (moneyline) · 1.0u
Pending — published before the match, graded in public.
Profiles: K. Jacquet · V. Gaubas · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method K. Jacquet V. Gaubas
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 62.3% 37.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 62.4% 37.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 64.1% 35.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 68.2% 31.8%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
K. Jacquet clay1612 85–61146
V. Gaubas clay1658 158–102260

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.

Head to head

K. Jacquet leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
June 30, 2026WimbledongrassK. Jacquet3 - 0
June 25, 2025WimbledongrassK. Jacquet2 - 0
July 30, 2024San Marino Challenger MenclayK. Jacquet2 - 0

Recent form

K. Jacquet

L G. Diallo 2 - 1 Aug. 3, 2026
W A. Shevchenko 1 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
L A. Blockx 1 - 2 July 22, 2026
W D. Merida Aguilar 1 - 2 July 21, 2026
L T. Daniel 1 - 2 July 19, 2026

V. Gaubas

L F. Diaz Acosta 2 - 0 Aug. 1, 2026
W T. Monteiro 2 - 0 July 31, 2026
W G. A. Olivieri 2 - 0 July 30, 2026
W L. Pavlovic 2 - 0 July 28, 2026
L P. Carreno-Busta 0 - 2 July 21, 2026

All June 29, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

MATCH: K. Jacquet vs V. Gaubas | Wimbledon (grass) | 1/64-finals

MODELS
  ELO  prob_A (Jacquet) 0.623
  ML   prob_A          0.624
  MODEL prob_A         0.641
  MARKET implied_A     0.682 (odds 1.40 / 3.00)
  -> Both ELO & ML sit ~6pts below market on Jacquet; devigged Gaubas 31.8% vs model ~36-38%. Value pick B, edge +4.1%.

FORM (last 90d)
  JACQUET: heavy grass run. W vs Skatov(1599,Avg,GRIND-TB) Final, W Guerrieri(1674,Strong,GRIND-TB), W Boscardin(1577,Avg,GRIND-TB), L Searle(1607), W Dimitrov(1820,Strong,GRIND-TB), W Onclin(1621,GRIND). Almost every win is a tiebreak GRIND -> hanging on, not dominating.
  GAUBAS: W Lajovic(1558,Avg) Final 5set, W Searle(1704,Strong) 7-6 7-6, W Mmoh(1481,Weak) 3set. Cleaner wins vs better opp.
  TRANSITIVE: Searle BEAT Jacquet 06-19; Gaubas BEAT Searle 06-24 straights. Edge Gaubas.

FATIGUE
  Jacquet 636 court-min / 7 matches-14d / 21 sets / 3 back-to-back days
  Gaubas  401 court-min / 3 matches-14d / 9 sets / 1 back-to-back
  Diff 235min (>60) -> Jacquet heavily disadvantaged. Major edge Gaubas.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: both won a Final 06-25 (WEAK, 5d) -> mutual, cancels.
  Venue: both deep Wimbledon runs.

VERDICT: BET B (V. Gaubas) @3.00, 1.0u. Market overprices an exhausted grinder at 1.40; both models flag the underdog and fresher-legs + transitive form validate it. Thin 4% edge -> small sizing.

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