TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Korneeva (moneyline) in K. Birrell vs A. Korneeva (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Birrell | A. Korneeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Birrell | hard | 1773 | 149–98 | 247 |
| A. Korneeva | hard | 1826 | 106–32 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
K. Birrell leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Birrell | 2 - 1 |
| L | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
K. Birrell (A) vs A. Korneeva (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS - ELO: A 0.361 / B 0.639 -> strongly favors Korneeva - ML: A 0.490 / B 0.510 -> near coin-flip, slight B - Blend: A 0.466 / B 0.534 - Market: A 1.72 (impl 0.550) / B 2.10 (impl 0.450); value_pick=B, edge +8.3% - DISAGREEMENT: market makes Birrell favorite, model+ELO make Korneeva favorite. FORM (last 90d) - Birrell (A): W vs Krejcikova (Elite 1871) 6-3 7-6 GRIND — quality grass scalp; W vs Stearns/Spink (Avg); L most-recent to Marcinko (1527) 1-6 4-6. Deep Eastbourne run. Grass ceiling shown but inconsistent. - Korneeva (B): just WON a Wimbledon-event title 06-25 vs Crawley (1618) 6-2 6-0 DOM; 3-0 venue run (QF/SF/F all won, two GRINDs). Also French Open final winner (clay). Hot but grass opponents were all Avg/Weak (1490-1618) — has NOT beaten elite on grass; lost to Naef (1665) on grass 06-09. FATIGUE (14d) - A: 7 matches, 517 court-min, back_to_back 3, last 06-24 (6d rest) - B: 5 matches, 448 court-min, back_to_back 2, last 06-25 (5d rest) - Both rested now; Birrell carries heavier cumulative load (+69min, +2 matches). NARRATIVE - Korneeva let-down: WEAK (won title 5d ago, grass). - Venue momentum: Korneeva 3-0 at this Wimbledon event; Birrell deep Eastbourne run. - Title recency: Korneeva — Wimbledon-event title 5d ago (grass), reinforced by French Open final. VERDICT — BET B (Korneeva) @2.10, 1.5u ELO strongly disagrees with market and the live read validates it: Korneeva is on a grass title run plus a Slam-final pedigree and the market is pricing her as a 2.10 underdog. Genuine +8.3% value. Sized modestly (not the bot's 2.5u) because model confidence is low, ML is a coin-flip, Korneeva's grass wins came vs soft fields, and Birrell has a real grass scalp (Krejcikova).