TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs A. Popyrin (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.02.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | A. Popyrin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.6% | 19.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
89.0% | 11.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
84.3% | 15.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
94.3% | 5.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | hard | 2299 | 219–45 | 264 |
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 18, 2026 | Doha | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 28, 2025 | US Open | hard | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used