TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs R. Masarova (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | R. Masarova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.3% | 44.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| R. Masarova | hard | 1641 | 85–62 | 147 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | V. Ryser | 1 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Monnet | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Curmi | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 1 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | J. Teichmann | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used