TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs A. Potapova (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | A. Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.1% | 62.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.2% | 54.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
64.4% | 35.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 5–0 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 9, 2024 | WTA Wuhan | hard | J. Pegula | 1 - 0 |
| March 29, 2023 | WTA Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| March 12, 2023 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 31, 2021 | US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used