TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Paolini vs L. Jeanjean (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with J. Paolini favoured at 1.18.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Paolini | L. Jeanjean |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.5% | 54.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
79.2% | 20.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Paolini | hard | 1867 | 119–80 | 199 |
| L. Jeanjean | clay | 1691 | 111–70 | 181 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
J. Paolini leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 6, 2026 | WTA United Cup | hard | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Zhu | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | A. Tubello | 2 - 1 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used