TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Paolini vs E. Mertens (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Paolini | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.1% | 20.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.7% | 43.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.0% | 55.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Paolini | hard | 1867 | 119–80 | 199 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
E. Mertens leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| June 26, 2024 | WTA Eastbourne | grass | J. Paolini | 0 - 0 |
| Oct. 22, 2023 | WTA Monastir | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 21, 2022 | Doha | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used