TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Mensik vs A. Mannarino (London on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with J. Mensik favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Mensik | A. Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
26.3% | 73.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
26.2% | 73.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.1% | 56.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
| A. Mannarino | hard | 1711 | 105–111 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
A. Mannarino leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | London | grass | A. Mannarino | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used