TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs M. Fucsovics (London on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | M. Fucsovics |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.3% | 44.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.8% | 38.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.5% | 42.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.2% | 39.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| M. Fucsovics | hard | 1755 | 95–76 | 171 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
B. Nakashima leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | London | grass | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 27, 2025 | Tokyo | hard | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Moutet | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 0 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used