TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs G. Diallo (London on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | G. Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.7% | 31.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.5% | 23.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.9% | 21.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| G. Diallo | hard | 1733 | 122–77 | 199 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | London | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 29, 2025 | Paris | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 9, 2023 | ATP Toronto | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used