TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kovacevic vs F. Cerundolo (London on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kovacevic | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.7% | 63.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.2% | 62.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kovacevic | hard | 1669 | 153–121 | 274 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | London | grass | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| March 25, 2023 | ATP Miami | hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used