TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J-L. Struff (moneyline) in J-L. Struff vs S. Baez (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J-L. Struff | S. Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
76.6% | 23.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.8% | 36.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.2% | 29.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J-L. Struff | hard | 1666 | 77–88 | 165 |
| S. Baez | clay | 1776 | 134–76 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
J-L. Struff leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J-L. Struff | 3 - 2 |
| April 7, 2024 | ATP Monte Carlo | clay | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical models identify a 4.5% value edge on S. Baez, primarily driven by the ML model detecting a significant overvaluation of Struff. While Struff is the natural grass favorite, his recent form is alarming with losses to opponents rated ~1480-1550 ELO (Varona, Borges), indicating a severe decline in performance level. Although Baez is a clay specialist, Struff's current vulnerability creates a viable underdog opportunity where the payout (4.00) exceeds the adjusted risk. We recommend backing Baez, as the market has failed to fully account for Struff's struggles against lower-ranked players.