TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Jovic vs Xin. Wang (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-21) — the market is efficient, with I. Jovic favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Jovic | Xin. Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.8% | 33.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.8% | 36.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Cristian | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 21, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus gives Xin. Wang a 32.3% chance, offering an 8.5% edge over the devigged market price of 23.8%. While the market has steamed Jovic to 1.25 likely due to her 3-1 recent record, this ignores the physical toll of 4 matches and 12 sets played in the last 14 days compared to Wang's fresh status. With no injury news to explain the drastic odds, the market appears to be overvaluing Jovic's recent activity while ignoring fatigue, justifying a value bet on the underdog.