TennisEdge's AI bot is backing I. Begu (moneyline) in I. Begu vs K. Swan (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Begu | K. Swan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.9% | 42.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 20, 2026.
K. Swan leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Swan | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 0 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | I. Begu | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | T. Martincova | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: I. Begu (A) vs K. Swan (B) | Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO 51.1% A | ML 68.6% A | model 57.9% A | consensus 61.4% A. Market 1.90/1.90 (50/50). Value pick A, edge +7.9%. ML disagrees sharply with market/ELO. FORM A (Begu, grass): WON Bad Homburg title def. Parry (1766, Strong) 6-4 7-6 [GRIND]; W vs Korpatsch (1346) 6-1 6-4; W vs V.Williams (1515) 6-2 4-6 7-6 [GRIND]; LOST 1-6 1-6 to Muchova (1625) last out. Also RG SF run on clay. Genuine WTA tour + grass credentials. FORM B (Swan): Hot but ITF-level — W75 Kurume + W35 Fukuoka titles vs sub-1500 fields. Grass: beat Golubic (1621) 6-4 7-6 & Martincova (1651) 7-5 6-2 at Ilkley, then RETIRED 1-6 in QF (injury flag). No match in 18 days. FATIGUE: A — 4 matches/14d, 12 sets, court time 273min, last match 06-24 (6d rest). B — 0 matches/14d, idle since 06-12 (18d). Edge: heavy recent load for A but well-rested now; B faces rust + possible injury from retirement. NARRATIVE: A TITLE Bad Homburg 9d ago (grass) — strong live grass form. No active let-down (played twice after that final). B retirement + long layoff = fitness/rust risk; home Wimbledon crowd a mild offset. VERDICT: BET A. Opponent-quality gap is decisive — Begu has beaten Strong-tier grass opponents (Parry 1766) while Swan's wins came vs weak ITF fields. ML edge (68.6%) validated by class + Swan's injury/layoff. ELO near-even and Begu's Muchova blowout temper sizing. 1.75u on Begu @1.90.