TennisEdge's AI bot is backing H. Gaston (moneyline) in H. Gaston vs S. Tsitsipas (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Gaston | S. Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.3% | 61.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Gaston | hard | 1716 | 113–88 | 201 |
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
S. Tsitsipas leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 0 |
| Feb. 17, 2022 | Marseille | hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
GASTON vs TSITSIPAS | Wimbledon grass R1. MODELS: ELO ~43% Gaston; Ensemble favors Tsitsipas 60% (statistical winner pick); Market ~32/68. Odds Gaston 3.0 / Tsitsipas 1.4. Value pick Gaston +11.1% edge (bot=bet 2.4u). FORM: Gaston WON a grass Challenger title 4 days ago (06-25 Final vs Echargui), clean DOM run through Midon/Cina/Echargui -- BUT all Weak/Avg opponents. Live grass momentum. Tsitsipas a 1.40 favorite largely on name: lost to Buse [Avg] on grass 06-23, and clay results show shaky level vs average opponents (l. Arnaldi, Tien, Machac). VERDICT: Market overprices Tsitsipas on reputation; Gaston enters with live grass form and a title. Edge is real but softer than Tarvet -- Gaston's title came vs weak fields and grass rewards Tsitsipas's serve. LWOS independently flagged Gaston (+4.5 games), confirming he is underpriced. NOTE: our own ensemble still forecasts Tsitsipas as match winner (60%); this is a value/price bet on Gaston at 3.0, not a confident winner call.