TennisEdge's AI bot is backing G. Ruse (moneyline) in G. Ruse vs C. McNally (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | G. Ruse | C. McNally |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.1% | 35.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.1% | 35.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Ruse | hard | 1766 | 83–58 | 141 |
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
C. McNally leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: G. Ruse vs C. McNally — Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) MODELS: - ELO prob A: 0.6414 | ML prob A: 0.4954 | model(ens): 0.6414 - Market implied A: 0.550 | odds A 1.72 / B 2.10 | value pick A, edge +0.092 - Alignment: ELO + market favor Ruse; ML is a coinflip (lone dissenter). Bot suggested PASS on model disagreement. FORM — RUSE (grass, hot): - 06-26 L Muchova(1699) 4-6 4-6 (quality loss, SF) - 06-25 W Navarro(1844,Strong) 6-4 6-2 DOM - 06-24 W Kalinskaya(1697) 7-5 6-2 GRIND - 06-23 W Noskova(1888,Strong) 6-1 6-3 DOM - 06-21 W Townsend(1557) FINAL — Bad Homburg TITLE (9d ago, grass) - Multiple DOM wins over Strong opponents on grass; title momentum. FORM — McNALLY (grass, mixed): - 06-25 L Marcinko(1583) 3-6 6-4 4-6 - 06-24 W Arango(1482) 6-3 6-0 DOM - 06-23 W Tjen(1484) 7-5 6-7 6-3 GRIND - 06-18 L Ka.Pliskova(1698) 4-6 6-7 - 06-16 W Ruzic(1704) 6-3 6-0 DOM - Beat Navarro(Strong) earlier but body of wins is lower quality. COMMON OPPONENT (Navarro): Ruse won cleaner (straights) vs McNally 3 sets. FATIGUE: court-time 391m (Ruse) vs 436m (McNally), diff 45m; matches_14d both 6. Slight edge / wash. Ruse 4 back-to-back = workload risk; last match 4d ago. McNally last 5d ago. NARRATIVE: TITLE Bad Homburg 9d ago (grass) — let-down window already passed (>7d), so no classic let-down. Live grass form outweighs. VERDICT: BET A (Ruse) 1.5u. Qualitative grass surge (DOM over Noskova 1888 & Navarro 1844, fresh title) validates the ELO edge market underprices at 1.72. ML coinflip + Ruse's heavy 14d workload keep the stake modest.