TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Ferro vs D. Kovinic (Rabat on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with F. Ferro favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Ferro | D. Kovinic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.8% | 61.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
31.1% | 68.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.2% | 18.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ferro | clay | 1649 | 68–54 | 122 |
| D. Kovinic | clay | 1526 | 56–35 | 91 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
F. Ferro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Rabat | clay | F. Ferro | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Palicova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Bennemann | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Basiletti | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Sakellaridi | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Riera | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | N. Basiletti | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Pigato | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Bulgaru | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 0 - 2 | May 24, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used