TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs A. Kalinina (Rabat on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Kalinina favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | A. Kalinina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.9% | 62.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| A. Kalinina | hard | 1699 | 83–69 | 152 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
A. Kalinina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Rabat | clay | A. Kalinina | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. L. Carle | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used