TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Hercog vs A. Bondar (Rabat on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Bondar favoured at 1.32.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Hercog | A. Bondar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.2% | 60.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.4% | 71.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.0% | 61.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.7% | 72.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Rabat | clay | A. Bondar | 0 - 0 |
| Aug. 10, 2023 | ITF W100 Maspalomas Gran Canaria Women | clay | P. Hercog | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Pigossi | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 0 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | D. Jakupovic | 2 - 1 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 0 - 0 | May 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used