TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Jones vs Y. Kotliar (Rabat on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with F. Jones favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Jones | Y. Kotliar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
86.8% | 13.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.8% | 25.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
88.0% | 12.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Jones | clay | 1786 | 126–51 | 177 |
| Y. Kotliar | clay | 1511 | 71–48 | 119 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Y. Kotliar leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Rabat | clay | Y. Kotliar | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Rame | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Ciric Bagaric | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Paquet | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | F. Ferro | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Spiteri | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Mazzola | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used