TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cobolli vs T. A. Tirante (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with F. Cobolli favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cobolli | T. A. Tirante |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
61.1% | 38.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.9% | 43.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
| T. A. Tirante | clay | 1806 | 156–120 | 276 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
T. A. Tirante leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | T. A. Tirante | 2 - 0 |
| March 20, 2025 | Miami | hard | T. A. Tirante | 2 - 1 |
| July 7, 2023 | Milan Challenger Men | clay | F. Cobolli | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Tabilo | Walk Over | July 17, 2026 |
| W | N. Basilashvili | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Marozsan | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Samuel | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used