TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Svitolina vs H. Baptiste (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with E. Svitolina favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Svitolina | H. Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.0% | 45.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.6% | 69.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.3% | 55.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Svitolina | hard | 2004 | 91–52 | 143 |
| H. Baptiste | hard | 1779 | 96–83 | 179 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
E. Svitolina leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 |
| March 22, 2026 | Miami | hard | H. Baptiste | 2 - 0 |
| May 10, 2025 | Rome | clay | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | Walk Over | June 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 0 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 1 - 2 | May 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | April 30, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used