TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Navarro (moneyline) in E. Navarro vs P. Badosa (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Navarro | P. Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.1% | 29.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.2% | 33.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.8% | 36.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
| P. Badosa | hard | 1824 | 78–54 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| June 18, 2025 | Berlin | grass | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 3, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 |
| May 9, 2024 | WTA Rome | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon 1/64 (grass) — E. Navarro vs P. Badosa MODELS ELO p(A) 0.635 ML p(A) 0.701 Serve/Ret 0.662 Model 0.638 Market 0.570 (A 1.66 / B 2.20) Value +6.8% on A — both models above market, consensus. FORM — Navarro (RED HOT, grass swing) 06-25 Bad Homburg QF L Ruse(1824) 4-6 2-6 (tired loss) 06-24 Bad Homburg 1/8 W Swiatek(1990) 7-5 2-6 6-3 GRIND vs ELITE — marquee win 06-23 Bad Homburg 1/16 W Lys(1565) 7-6 6-3 GRIND 06-21 Nottingham FINAL L Bouzkova(1733) 7-6 lost (reached final) 06-20 Notts SF W Golubic(1711) 7-6 6-2 GRIND 06-19 Notts QF W Bouzas(1712) 7-6 6-2 GRIND Deep runs back-to-back; live grass form excellent, but almost all GRINDs. FORM — Badosa (mediocre, rested) 06-19 Berlin QF L Noskova(1784) 1-6 3-6 dominated 06-17 Berlin 1/8 W Gauff(1725) 1-6 6-3 6-2 comeback over STRONG — best win 06-16 Berlin 1/16 W Lamens(1592) 6-3 6-2 DOM vs Avg 06-08 Hertog. L Snigur(1592) 1-6 6-7 Clay season poor; one quality grass win (Gauff), otherwise patchy. FATIGUE Navarro: 8 matches/14d, ~658 court-min, B2B x4 — heavy, BUT 5 days rest (last 06-25). Badosa: 3 matches/14d, 182 court-min, 11 days rest since 06-19. Edge: Badosa markedly fresher; Navarro's last match (Ruse) was a flat straight-set loss. NARRATIVE Let-down: Navarro LOST Nottingham final 06-21 (9d ago, outside window) — no live let-down; form re-confirmed by Swiatek win after. Venue: neutral (Wimbledon, no recent data either side). VERDICT — BET A (Navarro) 2.0u Both ELO and ML sit above devigged market (+6.8% edge) and the qualitative read backs it: Navarro is the form player of the grass swing (final + Swiatek scalp) vs a patchy Badosa whose only bright spot is the Gauff win. Counterweight is real fatigue/court-time and a flat loss to Ruse, so trim from full Kelly (2.2u) to 2.0u.