TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Mertens vs M. Andreeva (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with M. Andreeva favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Mertens | M. Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.3% | 76.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
13.7% | 86.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.0% | 65.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.0% | 76.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
| M. Andreeva | hard | 1957 | 93–37 | 130 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
M. Andreeva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Andreeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used