TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Jacquemot (moneyline) in E. Jacquemot vs N. Osaka (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Jacquemot | N. Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.0% | 72.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.5% | 85.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.5% | 72.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
8.7% | 91.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Jacquemot | hard | 1619 | 102–82 | 184 |
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| May 2, 2025 | Saint Malo | clay | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | I. D. Amariei | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The models identify an 8.4% edge on Jacquemot, driven largely by ELO, though the ML model still supports value (14.5% prob vs 9.1% market). Crucially, Osaka retired in a final yesterday (June 27) and faces a grueling 0-day turnaround for this Wimbledon opener, while Jacquemot has enjoyed 7 days of rest since her own Eastbourne run. The market is chasing Osaka's name brand (1.05 odds) despite the 'Bad Final' retirement signal and heavy fatigue, offering 11.00 odds on a live underdog.