TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Cocciaretto vs I. Swiatek (Rome on 2026-05-10) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Cocciaretto | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.3% | 76.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
11.2% | 88.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.8% | 48.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
10.6% | 89.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Cocciaretto | clay | 1690 | 94–47 | 141 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Rome | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Gibson | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used