TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Svrcina vs M. Kecmanovic (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with D. Svrcina favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Svrcina | M. Kecmanovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.4% | 33.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.9% | 49.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Svrcina | clay | 1643 | 100–83 | 183 |
| M. Kecmanovic | hard | 1734 | 98–98 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
M. Kecmanovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Walton | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used