TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Lys (moneyline) in D. Shnaider vs E. Lys (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Shnaider | E. Lys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.2% | 44.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.2% | 38.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Shnaider | hard | 1841 | 98–62 | 160 |
| E. Lys | hard | 1782 | 89–49 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
D. Shnaider leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 |
| July 20, 2024 | Budapest | hard | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Potapova | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | E. Lys | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: D. Shnaider (A) vs E. Lys (B) — Wimbledon 1/64-finals, grass, 2026-06-30. MODELS: ELO A 0.640 | ML A 0.552 | blend A 0.612 | market implied A 0.656 (1.44) / B 0.344 (2.75). Devig value_pick B, edge +4.4%. ML sits ~10pts under market — meaningful disagreement. FORM — SHNAIDER (grass last 2 = 0-2): L Tauson(1610) 4-6 4-6, L Bartunkova(1725) 2-6 7-6 3-6. Her resume is inflated by a CLAY French Open SF run (W vs Sabalenka 2047, W vs Keys 1895). Elite wins are all clay; on grass she has lost to sub-1750 opposition. Surface ELO overstated. FORM — LYS (grass-comfortable, German): L Navarro(1793) 6-7 3-6 (competitive), L Svitolina(1830) 3-6 2-6, W Frech(1520) 7-6 6-3. Grass is her better surface; she pushed Navarro and won a Berlin round. FATIGUE: A 2 matches/14d, 160min court, last 8d ago; B 3 matches/14d, 196min court, last 7d ago. Both rested. Court-time diff 36min, slight notional edge A — Roughly equal. NARRATIVE: No Final in window → no let-down signal. No Wimbledon history in window → no venue momentum. No title recency. VERDICT: Market prices Shnaider at 65.6% off an ELO inflated by a clay grand-slam run; on grass her live form is 0-2 vs modest opponents. Lys is the more surface-suited player and ML agrees the gap is far narrower. Back Lys for value at 2.75 — true ~43% > devig 34.4%. Modest stake given low overall confidence and Shnaider's genuine ceiling. BET B, 1.0u.