TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. El Jardi vs T. Maria (Rabat on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. El Jardi | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.3% | 63.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.3% | 80.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.8% | 72.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
9.1% | 90.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. El Jardi | clay | 1337 | 8–10 | 18 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 18, 2026.
T. Maria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | Rabat | clay | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | H. Inoue | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | C. Blomqvist | 0 - 2 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | Z. Desai | 2 - 1 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | E. Nepliy | 2 - 1 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | C. Dibenedetto | 1 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used