TennisEdge's AI bot is backing D. Dzumhur (moneyline) in D. Dzumhur vs A. Fery (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Dzumhur | A. Fery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
22.1% | 77.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.4% | 60.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.1% | 77.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Dzumhur | clay | 1693 | 110–83 | 193 |
| A. Fery | hard | 1722 | 118–49 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
A. Fery leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Fery | 3 - 1 |
| W | G. Blancaneaux | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon (grass) - 1/64-finals | D. Dzumhur (A) vs A. Fery (B) MODELS - ELO: Dzumhur 0.221 / Fery 0.779 - ML: Dzumhur 0.394 / Fery 0.606 - Ensemble model_prob_a 0.221 (low conf 0.39) - Market: A 3.75 (25.4%) / B 1.28 (74.6%), value_pick B edge +0.034 - Alignment: ELO ~= market on Fery; ML is the OUTLIER, pricing Dzumhur ~0.39 vs market 0.254. FORM - DZUMHUR (grass) - Won MALLORCA TITLE (grass) ~9d ago: SF def Kukushkin 6-2 6-1 (DOM), Final def Svajda 6-3 6-3 (DOM) - but vs Weak/Avg field (1503-1558). - Most recent: L to Kopriva 3-6 4-6 (data shows 06-23). Otherwise a clay-courter; grass title came against a soft draw. FORM - FERY (grass, home favorite) - Genuinely strong grass run vs quality: def Mannarino 1807 (7-6 6-4), def Hijikata 1708 (7-6 6-3), London QF, Birmingham SF, Samuel 6-0 6-2 (DOM). - BUT just LOST 2-6 6-7 to J.M. Cerundolo (elo 1396) in Eastbourne R16 - a flat upset loss right before Wimbledon. FATIGUE (14d) - Dzumhur: 4 matches, court 305min, b2b 1, last 06-23 (7d rest). - Fery: 5 matches, court 476min, b2b 2, last 06-24 (6d rest). - Court-time diff 171min (>60) -> Fery the heavier-loaded side; slight fatigue edge to Dzumhur. NARRATIVE - Let-down: Dzumhur won grass Final ~9d ago -> beyond 7d window, no live let-down. - Fery: fresh upset loss to a sub-1400 opponent dents the short-price favorite read. - Title recency: Dzumhur TITLE Mallorca ~9d ago (grass) - fresher and carrying confidence. VERDICT ELO + market agree on Fery, but ML meaningfully disagrees and the qualitative read partly validates it: Fery carries the heavier 14d load AND a flat pre-Slam upset loss, while Dzumhur is fresher with a recent grass title. At 3.75 the break-even is 26.7%; ensemble/ML + fatigue put Dzumhur ~30-32% -> thin positive EV on the underdog. Fery remains the most likely winner, so this is a reduced-stake value-dog play, not a confidence pick. No edge on Fery (tiny 0.034 market edge erased by his fatigue/upset loss).