TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Paquet vs M. Joint (Paris on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with M. Joint favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Paquet | M. Joint |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.7% | 78.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.6% | 69.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.6% | 71.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
C. Paquet leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Paris | clay | C. Paquet | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Lazaro Garcia | 1 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Rus | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | V. Strakhova | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | V. Ivanov | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Grubor | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | W. Osuigwe | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used