TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Korpatsch vs K. Efremova (Paris on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with T. Korpatsch favoured at 1.22.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Korpatsch | K. Efremova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.6% | 12.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.7% | 42.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.6% | 23.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Korpatsch | clay | 1772 | 122–71 | 193 |
| K. Efremova | hard | 1625 | 36–11 | 47 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
T. Korpatsch leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Paris | clay | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Sherif | 0 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Stusek | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | C. Clarke | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | G. S. Popa | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | E. Dotsenko | 0 - 2 | May 31, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 0 - 2 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | May 16, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used