TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Charaeva vs A. Tubello (Paris on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with A. Charaeva favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Charaeva | A. Tubello |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.3% | 64.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.3% | 54.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.9% | 44.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Charaeva | hard | 1610 | 75–54 | 129 |
| A. Tubello | clay | 1578 | 93–43 | 136 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 20, 2026.
A. Charaeva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Paris | clay | A. Charaeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Kraus | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | V. Jimenez Kasintseva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | A. Okutoyi | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 1 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | C. Werner | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ren | 2 - 1 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Soboleva | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used