TennisEdge's AI bot is backing C. Osorio (moneyline) in C. Osorio vs S. Waltert (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Osorio | S. Waltert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.3% | 28.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.6% | 36.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Osorio | hard | 1807 | 72–65 | 137 |
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
C. Osorio leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. Osorio | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Stefanini | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
C. Osorio vs S. Waltert | Wimbledon grass | 1/64-finals | 2026-06-30
MODELS
ELO A 0.713 | ML A 0.686 | Model A 0.680
Market devig A 0.636 (odds 1.50 / 2.62) | value edge +4.4% on A
Both models sit ~5-7% ABOVE market in the SAME direction -> Osorio undervalued.
FORM (last ~90d)
Osorio: reached Eastbourne grass SF last week (L 2-6 4-6 to Tomljanovic 1712).
Quality wins: DOM 6-2 6-4 vs Alexandrova (1734, Strong); GRIND 7-5 6-7 7-5 vs Putintseva (1731, Strong).
Body of work mostly clay but beats Strong-tier opponents.
Waltert: ALSO reached Eastbourne grass SF last week (L 4-6 7-6 4-6 to Marcinko 1432, a weak-tier opp in 3).
Best recent wins vs weaker fields: Kostovic 1621 (6-0 6-3 DOM), Salkova 1556 final win. Earlier Madrid/Rome challenger finals (>50d, no let-down).
FATIGUE
Both last played 2026-06-20 (10d rest) -> both fresh.
matches_14d: 1 each. Court time A 58m vs B 106m. Roughly equal, no fatigue edge.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (no recent Final within window for either).
Venue: neither has Wimbledon history shown.
Both validated on grass via Eastbourne SF runs -> live-form parity, but Osorio's wins came against materially stronger opponents.
VERDICT
Two models disagree with market in the same direction and the qualitative read (superior opponent quality, both fresh) validates Osorio. Edge is modest and the price is short (1.50), confidence low. Small-stake BET on A.