TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Norrie vs A. Davidovich Fokina (London on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with A. Davidovich Fokina favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Norrie | A. Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.5% | 39.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.5% | 46.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.0% | 55.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Norrie | hard | 1843 | 125–89 | 214 |
| A. Davidovich Fokina | hard | 1851 | 107–90 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A. Davidovich Fokina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | London | grass | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Auger-Aliassime | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | F. Marozsan | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used