TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Moutet vs P. Llamas Ruiz (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with C. Moutet favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Moutet | P. Llamas Ruiz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
15.7% | 84.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.6% | 70.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moutet | hard | 1763 | 93–73 | 166 |
| P. Llamas Ruiz | clay | 1792 | 152–76 | 228 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
P. Llamas Ruiz leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 3 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | M. Giron | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | K. Rice | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Lajal | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Kuzuhara | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | Z. Svajda | 0 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used