TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Gauff vs T. Valentova (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Gauff | T. Valentova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.5% | 39.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.8% | 28.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.9% | 49.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.1% | 38.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.8% | 26.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauff | hard | 2045 | 155–60 | 215 |
| T. Valentova | hard | 1814 | 74–23 | 97 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
C. Gauff leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| May 29, 2025 | French Open | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Bencic | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | C. Liu | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Sierra | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Townsend | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Joint | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used