TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Garin vs J. M. Cerundolo (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with C. Garin favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Garin | J. M. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.6% | 46.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Garin | clay | 1733 | 93–64 | 157 |
| J. M. Cerundolo | clay | 1838 | 205–111 | 316 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
C. Garin leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Garin | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 24, 2026 | Santiago | clay | C. Garin | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Tien | 1 - 3 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 1 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | L. Midon | 1 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used