TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs R. Bautista-Agut (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.54.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | R. Bautista-Agut |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.2% | 40.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.8% | 51.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.6% | 38.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| R. Bautista-Agut | hard | 1665 | 76–77 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 |
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| April 8, 2025 | Monte Carlo | clay | R. Bautista-Agut | 2 - 0 |
| June 21, 2023 | ATP Halle | grass | R. Bautista-Agut | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | B. Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 9, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used