TennisEdge's AI bot is backing B. Bonzi (moneyline) in B. Bonzi vs G. Diallo (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Bonzi | G. Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.4% | 77.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
73.3% | 26.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.3% | 46.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
G. Diallo leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | G. Diallo | 2 - 2 |
| Oct. 3, 2025 | Shanghai | hard | G. Diallo | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Dellien | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Mmoh | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | B. Bicknell | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon 1/64-finals (grass) — B. Bonzi (A) vs G. Diallo (B) MODELS: ELO A 0.533 | ML A 0.224 | serve/return A 0.733 | model A 0.533. Market: A 2.20 (impl 0.430) / B 1.66 (impl 0.570). Value pick A, edge +10.3%. Strong internal divergence (ELO+serve favor A, ML strongly favors B) — confidence near zero per bot. FORM — BONZI (A), grass: - L 06-18 Nottingham QF vs O'Connell (1534, Weak) 4-6 4-6 — straight-set loss to a weak opp (blemish) - W 06-17 Nottingham vs Fearnley (1755, Strong) 6-1 7-6 — GRIND, beat Strong - W 06-15 Nottingham vs Barrios Vera (1614, Avg) 6-3 2-6 6-3 — 3-set GRIND - L 06-12 Hertogenbosch QF vs De Minaur (1878, Elite) 2-6 4-6 - W 06-11 vs Humbert (1663, Strong) 6-4 3-6 6-3 — beat Strong, 3 sets - W 06-08 vs Rottgering (1635, Avg) 6-4 6-4 — DOM - W 06-07 Hertogenbosch FINAL vs Tomic (1602) 7-6 6-2 7-5 — TITLE TITLE: Hertogenbosch 23d ago (grass). Real grass pedigree. FORM — DIALLO (B), grass: - L 06-25 Eastbourne QF vs Draper (1848, Strong) 1-6 4-6 - W 06-24 vs Etcheverry (1567, Avg) 7-6 6-3 6-2 — 3-set GRIND - W 06-22 vs Atmane (1499, Weak) 6-7 6-4 7-5 — 3-set GRIND - L 06-16 London vs De Minaur (1879, Elite) 6-7 3-6 - L 06-09 Hertogenbosch vs Mannarino (1763, Strong) 4-6 6-3 5-7 Wins only vs Avg/Weak, all grinds; lost every Strong/Elite test. FATIGUE: Bonzi 261min/3 matches in 14d, last match 06-18 (12d rest, fresh). Diallo 416min/4 matches in 14d, last 06-25 (5d rest). Court-time diff +155min — heavier (Diallo) disadvantaged; Bonzi well rested. NARRATIVE: No active let-down (Bonzi title 23d ago). Bonzi grass-title momentum vs Diallo's grind-heavy, beat-nobody-of-quality run. VERDICT: BET A (Bonzi) @2.20, 1.0u. ELO + serve/return + grass title + rest edge back the underdog price; market overprices a fatigued Diallo who hasn't beaten a quality opp on grass. ML divergence and the O'Connell loss cap conviction — modest stake.