TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs S. Cirstea (Rome on 2026-05-09) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.09.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | S. Cirstea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.5% | 28.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.4% | 19.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.8% | 43.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.6% | 30.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
87.0% | 13.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | S. Cirstea | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 8, 2026 | WTA Brisbane | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| April 27, 2023 | WTA Madrid | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| March 29, 2023 | WTA Miami | hard | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
All May 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used