TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs B. Krejcikova (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | B. Krejcikova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
80.0% | 20.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.1% | 12.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
83.5% | 16.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
88.5% | 11.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| B. Krejcikova | hard | 1893 | 82–51 | 133 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 6–1 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 23, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| April 19, 2023 | WTA Stuttgart | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| March 28, 2023 | WTA Miami | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| March 14, 2023 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | D. Salkova | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | L. Havlickova | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used