TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Pellegrino vs L. Nardi (Rome on 2026-05-07) — the market is efficient, with A. Pellegrino favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Pellegrino | L. Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
67.9% | 32.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.6% | 40.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.7% | 36.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
| L. Nardi | hard | 1661 | 105–91 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
A. Pellegrino leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 1 |
| June 14, 2025 | Perugia | clay | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | R. Noguchi | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Bertola | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | G. Hussey | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
All May 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used