TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Fearnley (moneyline) in A. Michelsen vs J. Fearnley (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Michelsen | J. Fearnley |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.0% | 27.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 148–85 | 233 |
| J. Fearnley | hard | 1713 | 72–38 | 110 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 26, 2026 | Bloomfield Hills | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Fearnley | 3 - 2 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MICHELSEN vs FEARNLEY — Wimbledon R1 (grass) MODELS: ELO A 0.40 | ML A 0.73 | model A 0.40 (B 0.60) | market A 1.66 (impl 0.57) / B 2.20 (impl 0.43). Models split; ELO+market disagree. Value pick B, edge +0.166. FORM: - Michelsen (A): last 14 matches ALL CLAY. Best: French Open R16 (W vs Basavareddy 1722, W vs Shevchenko 1672 6-2 6-4 6-2 DOM, L vs Jodar 1954 in 5). Geneva: W vs Wawrinka 7-6 7-6 GRIND, W vs Baez. Otherwise spotty (L Ofner, Lehecka, Rinderknech, Popyrin). NO grass reps; last match 2026-05-29 = 32d off going into grass. - Fearnley (B): all-grass form, fully acclimated. Ilkley FINALIST 06-14 (W vs Romano 1781 SF, W vs Blanch 1723 QF two TBs, beat Smith/Nardi). Nottingham W vs Sweeny then L vs Bonzi 06-17. British player at home Wimbledon. FATIGUE (as of 06-30): A 0 matches/14d, 32d rest (rusty/cold). B last match 06-17 = 13d rest (prediction's 06-27 'not rested / 5 in 14d' snapshot is now stale). Both rested — non-factor. NARRATIVE: No active let-down (Ilkley final loss 16d ago, outside window). Venue/surface momentum heavily B: grass-court Brit vs clay player with zero grass prep stepping off a month layoff. Clay->grass is the toughest transition; market appears to price Michelsen on tour pedigree while ignoring surface + form. VERDICT: BET B (Fearnley) @ 2.20. ELO (0.60 B) and qualitative read align against market favorite. ML (0.73 A) is the dissenter but is the model least equipped for surface transition. Modest 1.5u given split models / low base confidence.