TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Mannarino (moneyline) in A. Mannarino vs T. Droguet (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Mannarino | T. Droguet |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.8% | 33.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mannarino | hard | 1711 | 105–111 | 216 |
| T. Droguet | clay | 1787 | 133–65 | 198 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Mannarino leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Mannarino | 3 - 0 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MANNARINO (A) vs DROGUET (B) — Wimbledon 1/64, grass MODELS: ELO 0.688 | ML 0.668 | model 0.639 | market implied 0.55 (odds 1.72/2.10). value pick A, edge +8.9%. Both ELO and ML sit well ABOVE market in the same direction — models agree, market lags. FORM (grass, recent-first): A Mannarino: L Borges 2-6 2-6 (1764,Strong) | L Fery 6-7 4-6 (1686) | W Mensik 7-5 7-6 (1609,GRIND) | L De Minaur 4-6 0-6 (1892,Elite) | W Zhang 7-6 6-3 (1659,GRIND) | W Rinderknech 7-6 3-6 6-3 (GRIND) | W Diallo 4-6 6-3 7-5 (1728,GRIND). Reached Hertogenbosch SF. Losses all to genuinely strong/elite players; wins are GRIND-heavy. B Droguet: L Rodionov 6-7 1-6 (1634) | W Sakellaridis 6-3 6-3 (DOM) | W Kym 3-6 7-6 6-4 (GRIND) | W Broom 6-3 4-6 6-1 (GRIND). Dublin qualifying SF run — all opponents sub-1650. FATIGUE: A 4 matches/14d, 364min, last 06-21 (9d rest). B 4/14d, 385min, last 06-20 (10d rest). Roughly equal, both well rested now. NARRATIVE: No live let-down (Droguet's old Final wins are clay challengers >60d ago). No title-recency signal on grass. Mannarino is the established grass specialist; Droguet a tour-level qualifier proving himself vs weak fields. VERDICT: Two models agree above market and the surface/experience gap validates the edge — proven grass lefty vs a qualifier whose wins are all sub-1650. Tempered by Mannarino's GRIND-only wins, a 2-6 2-6 last-match blowout, and low model confidence. BET A, 1.5u (below bot's 2.5u given shaky form).