TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Krueger (moneyline) in A. Krueger vs D. Vekic (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Krueger | D. Vekic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.9% | 46.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.6% | 47.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.8% | 60.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Krueger | hard | 1720 | 94–83 | 177 |
| D. Vekic | hard | 1697 | 72–72 | 144 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Krueger leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 13, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 1 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
A. Krueger vs D. Vekic — Wimbledon 1/64 (grass), 2026-06-30 MODELS ELO p(A)=0.539 ML p(A)=0.406 Serve/Ret p(A)=0.526 Blend p(A)=0.461 (consensus 0.488) Market: A 2.37 / B 1.57 -> implied A 39.8% | B 60.2%. Value pick A, edge +6.3%. Split signal: ELO favors Krueger, ML & market favor Vekic. FORM — KRUEGER (red-hot on grass) 06-25 Wimbledon F W v Iatcenko(1783,Strong) 7-6 6-1 GRIND 06-24 SF W v Hontama(1459,Weak) 6-3 5-7 6-3 GRIND(3set) 06-23 QF W v Knutson(1650,Strong) 7-5 7-5 DOM 06-14 Ilkley F W v Naef(1762,Strong) 7-5 6-2 DOM Earlier: Birmingham TITLE (06-14 era) + Ilkley TITLE. Multiple DOM wins vs Strong. Grass run ~13-1. Live form clearly elite; ELO catching up, market lagging. FORM — VEKIC 06-17 Berlin R1 L v Eala(1832,Strong) 5-7 4-6 06-14 London F W v Raducanu(1838,Strong) 6-0 7-6 big win 06-13 SF W v Boulter(1790,Strong) 6-1 6-3 DOM 06-12 QF W v Pliskova(1717,Strong) 6-4 4-6 6-3 GRIND Won London title on grass — also strong, but last out was a R1 loss + 13d idle (rust). FATIGUE Krueger: 5 matches/14d, ~394 min court time, back-to-back 3, last match 06-25 (5d rest). Vekic: 3 matches/14d, ~183 min court time, last match 06-17 (13d rest). Court-time diff >60min -> Krueger heavier-loaded, fatigue disadvantage. Vekic fresh but rusty. NARRATIVE Let-down: Krueger won Wimbledon-warmup Final 5d ago -> WEAK let-down signal. Title recency: TITLE Ilkley/Birmingham + Wimbledon-F win, all on grass <2wk -> live form outweighs. Venue: n/a (1/64). VERDICT — BET A (Krueger) 1.5u @2.37 ELO (54%) meaningfully disagrees with market (40%) and the qualitative read validates it: Krueger is on a dominant grass tear (2 titles, DOM wins vs Strong) yet priced as a clear dog. Even at the conservative blended ~46% her price returns +EV; form-adjusted she's ~coin-flip. Tempered to 1.5u by heavy court-time load + minor title let-down and ML's lean to Vekic.