TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kalinskaya vs J. Ostapenko (Rome on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with J. Ostapenko favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kalinskaya | J. Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.6% | 60.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.2% | 70.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.9% | 56.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kalinskaya | hard | 1880 | 126–78 | 204 |
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1767 | 88–73 | 161 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. Kalinskaya leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 16, 2026 | WTA Dubai | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 |
| March 24, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 21, 2024 | WTA Dubai | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 10, 2023 | Adelaide 2 | hard | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | D. Kasatkina | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Ruzic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 1 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used