TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Gasanova (moneyline) in A. Gasanova vs E. Arango (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Gasanova | E. Arango |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.2% | 24.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gasanova | hard | 1654 | 123–68 | 191 |
| E. Arango | clay | 1556 | 69–65 | 134 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 15, 2026.
A. Gasanova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 |
| L | H. Tan | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | S. Bandecchi | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Arango | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | L. Boisson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | L. Nilsson | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies an 11.0% edge on Gasanova, driven by a massive ELO discrepancy (+193) which suggests she is the superior player on paper. While the ML model is conservative (52.8%), qualitative analysis indicates Gasanova's recent 'Final' win was likely the Wimbledon Qualifying competition, giving her crucial match practice on these courts versus Arango who is playing her first match here. This 'Qualifier Momentum' spot often yields value against rusty favorites, validating the bet despite the ELO/ML divergence.