Bet sheet archive · 18 September 2026
18 September 2026: 4 bets staked, settled 1W-3L. Every entry below was published before its match started.
Barthel arrives in the better form, having thumped a much higher-rated opponent in straight sets on this court, and the price reflects it. The longer record tells a different story on clay: her two-year clay level sits below the tour baseline over more than five hundred service games, and her clay rating is a full 114 points under her hard-court rating. Ristic is the opposite, a twenty-year-old whose clay record is her strongest asset and whose rating has climbed nearly forty points in the last month. We take the younger player at a price that looks built on one good afternoon.
M. Barthel won 2 - 0
Tubello has quietly built her whole record on clay, where her rating sits 221 points above her hard-court mark, and this is a clay quarter-final. The ratings that make De Stefano the favourite are pooled ones; on clay alone Tubello is the better-rated player, and the measured serve and return numbers back that up on every metric. Tubello also beat Dalma Galfi, a far higher-rated player, in straight sets on this same court yesterday, a result our own form summary had not yet absorbed. The market has her at 2.26 and we make her a narrow favourite.
S. De Stefano won 2 - 1
Gorgodze has been the more tested player all year, beating rated opposition 16 times in 37 tries and reaching the US Open qualifying final last month, while Basiletti's rapid rise has come almost entirely against a much softer field. The market has moved toward Basiletti largely on the workload picture, since Gorgodze plays a third straight day after two long three-set wins. Our own fatigue model already charges her fully for that and still makes the match a coin flip, so the price on offer looks too long. We back Gorgodze on the exchange.
N. Basiletti won 2 - 0
Sloane Stephens arrives in the Guadalajara quarter-final at her highest rating in two years, a peak she set only two days ago, after beating Clara Tauson and Janice Tjen when the market made her the underdog in each case. Peyton Stearns has been travelling the other way, losing twice this summer as a clear favourite and sitting more than a hundred points below her own 2025 best. The market still prices this as a comfortable Stearns win, so we are taking Stephens with a four game head start at Pinnacle rather than backing her to win outright. The stake comes back if Stearns wins by exactly four games.
P. Stearns won 2 - 0
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Every pick is published before its match starts and graded in public — wins and losses both stay on the record. 18+. Bet responsibly.