TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Stephens +4.0 (game handicap) at 1.67 in P. Stearns vs S. Stephens (Guadalajara on 2026-09-17). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Stearns | S. Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.8% | 41.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.9% | 56.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.6% | 38.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Stearns | hard | 1723 | 102–80 | 182 |
| S. Stephens | hard | 1716 | 67–76 | 143 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 20, 2026.
S. Stephens leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 18, 2026 | Guadalajara | hard | P. Stearns | 2 - 0 |
| April 15, 2024 | WTA Rouen | clay | S. Stephens | 2 - 1 |
| May 25, 2023 | WTA Rabat | clay | S. Stephens | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Siniakova | 1 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | H. Shi | 1 - 2 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
| L | V. Golubic | 2 - 1 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 0 - 2 | Sept. 19, 2026 |
| L | L. Perry | 1 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | C. Kuhl | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Pareja | 0 - 2 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Sharma | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | R. M. Nijkamp | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
All Sept. 17, 2026 results & picks →